Nobody could have known, as Penn State and UCLA warmed up on a sunny California Saturday, that this was going to be an upset for the ages. The boys from State College were coming off a huge disappointment in Happy Valley, traveled the over twenty-five hundred miles, and probably hoped to get up early on a struggling program that had just fired their head coach and started the season with four straight loses.
7-0
On the side lines Drew Allar and company geared up for their opening drive. Eager to answer, not having any doubt whatsoever of eventual outcome. Their defense would start to tighten up and just wait until we get this Penn State offense rolling against an inferior defense.
Neuheisel had different plans. They knew that their opponent wouldn’t stay sleeping for long and football is a huge momentum sport. The wind was at his back, this was the time to roll the dice, employ a little bit of trickery and kick the on-side kick. I’ve seen this before. A local high school coach with a team coming out of a long slump world do this in one or two games just to help his squad get their feet under them. Sure, you don’t recover and give the other team very good field position. But it’s unexpected and totally deflates the opposition if you get the ball back again.
UCLA would easily recover the short kick to the far side and suddenly the score was ten to zip with the favorites trailing.
10-0
James Franklin didn’t need this. But he did not have time to waste either. He felt some pressure, “can’t win the big game” was now screaming in his ears. However, unlike the fair weather fans who have never coached a game in their lives, winning games in real life wasn’t like them hitting the right button combos on their game controller, and they had watched film all week on a team that is now doing things they couldn’t do before. It wasn’t like he hasn’t felt pressure like this in the past. He hoped to get on the board then settle in to a rhythm where eventually talent would takeover.
Allar did engineer a drive, after a scary near fumble about gave the Bruins the ball back one more time, and brought the Lions within three by the end of the first quarter.
10-7
But UCLA’s quarterback, Nico Iamaleava, a proven talent who started his college career at Tennessee where he was 10-3, didn’t plan to make this easy for the visitors and went right back to work answering quickly to put the Lions down two scores again. He was hungry. And that is where the upset really started to pick up pace. Penn State would remain scoreless throughout the second, obviously now back on the ropes, and was discombobulated.
27-7
In the third quarter Penn State finally would wake up, with their offense finally finding a little traction. Drew Allar, shaking off earlier struggles, connected with Khalil Dinkins for a 40-yard touchdown pass, narrowing the gap to 27-14. Moments later, a special teams miscue by UCLA gave Penn State a spark when Liam Clifford returned a punt 6 yards for a touchdown, bringing the score to 27-21. The Nittany Lions’ sideline erupted, sensing a shift in momentum, and the Rose Bowl crowd grew tense as Penn State’s defense started to apply pressure.
But UCLA’s young play caller, Neuheisel, kept his composure. Leaning on Nico’s dual-threat ability, the Bruins answered with a 1-yard touchdown run by Iamaleava, restoring a 13-point lead at 34-21. The aggressive nothing to lose playcalling, including a mix of designed runs and quick passes, kept Penn State’s defense (still adjusting to the sudden loss of Tony Rojas during the week) guessing and prevented them from settling into a rhythm.
34-21
In the fourth quarter, Penn State mounted a furious comeback. Kaytron Allen punched in a 2-yard touchdown run, cutting the deficit to 34-28. The Nittany Lions’ defense forced a stop, and Allar led another drive, finding Kyron Hudson for a 15-yard touchdown pass to make it 34-35. With the game within reach, Penn State’s hopes soared. But Iamaleava, showcasing his poise, responded with a 7-yard touchdown run and a successful 2-point conversion pass to Kwazi Gilmer, pushing UCLA’s lead to 42-35 with 6:41 left.In the final minute, Penn State drove deep into UCLA territory, facing a 4th-and-2 with 37 seconds remaining. The Nittany Lions needed a conversion to keep their hopes alive, but UCLA’s Scooter Jackson burst through for a clutch tackle-for-loss on Allar, forcing a turnover on downs. With the game all but sealed, UCLA’s punter, Will Karoll, took an intentional safety on the ensuing punt, making the final score 42-37.
Final Score: 42-37, UCLA
The Rose Bowl erupted as UCLA celebrated their first win of the season and their first victory over a top-10 opponent since 2010. For Penn State, the loss marked a second straight Big Ten defeat, dropping them to 3-2 and raising questions about their playoff aspirations and adding more fuel to the “fire Franklin” fire. And, at this point, his hopes of a playoff run or National Championship this year are on life support. Coming off a 21st “big game” loss a week earlier, where Franklin has continued to lose to the top ten ranked teams—despite usually winning the UCLA-type games—makes it an even more stinging defeat.
So how does this happen?
“Any given Sunday” applies to professional football and is this idea that any NFL team can beat any other on any given matchup. It is, in that case, about league parity and the fact that they strive for a competitive balance. Just because a game isn’t a “big game” according to fan expectations and current rankings doesn’t mean that winning is just a given. And Penn State is one of the teams consistently good enough that every other team is going to come prepared. You know that even in Columbus, despite having success against Franklin, they still mark the big game on the calendar. This is also how the Buckeyes get beat by Michigan annually—the Wolverines come ready for them.
So UCLA was in the perfect position for an underdog ambush. There was no way for the Penn State coaching staff to prepare, a new coach with nothing to lose can pretty much do anything and nobody will question it. If the on-side kick, after their first score, was recovered by the Lions, commentators will shrug, “well, at least he’s trying to give his team an edge against a heavy favorite.” So there’s nothing to lose in the risky play. But Franklin can’t be as freewheeling, there are expectations to win and thus anything special he does will be judged as the reason why they lost—a damned if you do, damned if you don’t scenario.
The upset comes down to a UCLA getting a big opening lead from playing good football and a little trickery. Then you have a better quarterback in Nico than is indicated by the team’s 0-4 record. After that you have Penn State still trying to find their identity losing a key defensive starter, Tony Rojas, only days before. Adding to the woes Jim Knowles, a proven defensive coordinator, fresh off his national championship, didn’t adjust to the big third down threat of Iamaleava. It is as if he just expected superior talent to get the job done and it didn’t. Apparently he did spy with Dominic DeLuca, replacing Rojos, who just couldn’t make those critical third down stops. Knowles shut down Iamaleava with his Ohio State talent last year. Are we really going to blame coaching?
But the real story here is that football is an emotional sport and Penn State came in to this contest with their butts dragging. They got beat during the White Out despite. That monkey of the “big game” struggles still not off their back. They were on the road a long way from home. Sure, they probably have a slightly more talented group, but UCLA got some momentum early and didn’t get off of the gas as the beleaguered then 7th ranked team finally stated to wake up.
Fire Franklin?
There has been a lot of fans chirping, over the past few years about Franklin’s inability to “win the big game” and what this means is that, despite his winning the games that he is expected to win, he has a twenty-one game losing streak against top ten teams, and this is especially irksome considering Penn State has not beaten rival Ohio State since 2016 (my last game in attendance), and, therefore, according to this group he must suck as a coach, right?
But this is just a total lack of appreciation for the reality of college football. No, while Penn State has always been good, the elite teams were decades ago, in the 1980s and Franklin’s record really isn’t all that different from the legendary Joe Paterno who went 3-12 in his first 15 top-5 games. And then there’s the fact that Penn State went in as the underdog in all but 3 of these 21 top ten match ups. Paterno actually lost more top ten contests as a higher ranked team going in. And so the field has tilted in favor of the winners of the majority of these frequently cited 21 Franklin losses and many of them still ended up being very close games. The recent Oregon Ducks game at home being a prime example, going into double overtime before another painful end.
So why does Penn State lose ‘big’ games?
First of all this whole big game standard is nonsense. Every single game at this level is a big game. Even in those warm up games there is usually enough talent on the other side to pull off the upset. Who can forget how Appalachian State humbled the mighty Wolverines. Second, that said, the outcome of the game often will come down to talent and depth. That is what I believe gives the perennial elites their edge, it is the program itself that draws the talent and whomever is coaching gets the credit. So how have the teams Franklin taken to top ten match ups stacked up? Was there a talent gap?
According to Grok:
Yes, in many cases: A talent gap existed in 15 of 21 losses, particularly against Ohio State (7-0 in these matchups) and Michigan (4-0), where opponents’ rosters were stacked with higher-rated recruits. Ohio State’s average class rank of 2.2 reflects a near-NFL pipeline (e.g., 5-stars like J.T. Tuimoloau in 2021 or Jeremiah Smith in 2024), while Penn State’s ~10–13 range, though top-tier, lacked the same elite depth. Against Oregon (2024, 2025), Oregon’s NIL-fueled classes (No. 3–6) outpaced PSU’s, contributing to losses. These gaps align with probabilities: teams with top-5 classes win ~65–70% of top-10 matchups when facing teams ranked 8–15, per historical betting data.
So Penn State was the underdog and does not draw as well as teams more known to be in the national championship discussion, which means Franklin may even have these teams punching above their weight to keep it close. They’re not head and shoulders above UCLA. And this won’t change with a new coach. Historically the Nittany Lions have been committed to the scholar-athlete concept, Paterno valued academic performance as much as on field success, which does limit the talent pool a little bit. To abandon this is to lose what it means to me Penn State. The win at all costs crowd clearly don’t get this.
Interim UCLA play caller is Jerry Neuheisel had a game plan that his opponents could not possibly know. In his mind this would be an ambush, with slight adjustments here and there he knew he could take advantage of a sleep walking Nittany Lions squad. He won the coin. Perfect. Time to get some of that Bruin confidence back. With just a bit of luck, better execution and efficiency on third downs they clawed their way from the Big Ten basement and drew first blood.
All of that considered, there is still plenty legitimate criticism. Franklin getting too conservative in play-calling contributes—call it “playing not to lose” rather than take the risks necessary to win. But some of this stems from, and is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy or due to pressure from a fan base that never lets the team move on from a loss. Fueled by their very unrealistic expectations, they amplify the failures and aid opponents. Who will want to replace Allar or Franklin after seeing the nastiness online because a team lost some games to better competition? Penn State fans need to realize that they are truly the monkey on the back of the program.
Urban Meyer weighing in on Franklin is worth a Beaver Stadium full of ungrateful idiots:
I think he’s doing a great job. I think you talk, Ryan Day‘s got a Wolverine problem, and Penn State’s got a couple problems; Oregon. Everyone’s just got their little flaws they’ve got to work out. So is criticism right, to answer your question? Yes. Is it time to make a change or even talk about that? Absolutely not.
That’s a voice of experience and expertise.
Players back Franklin, Jason Cabinda on X:
Those Sunday morning quarterbacks who believe replacing Franklin will just magically make the program elite are sorely mistaken and could end up dooming us like Nebraska after firing one head coach after another in a pursuit of relevance. Nebraska’s spiral began with the 2003 dismissal of Frank Solich, who had a 58-19 record (.753) and a 1999 Big 12 title, but was deemed insufficiently elite after 9-3 and 7-7 seasons. His replacement, Bill Callahan, went 27-22 (.551) with no conference titles, followed by Bo Pelini’s 66-27 (.710) tenure, which was axed despite consistent 9–10-win seasons due to big-game failures (0-4 vs. top-10 teams). Subsequent coaches—Mike Riley (19-19, .500), Scott Frost (16-31, .340), and in the interim Mickey Joseph—plummeted Nebraska to irrelevance, with a combined 35-70 (.333) from 2015–2022, no bowl wins since 2015, and a drop from top-10 recruiting classes to the 20s by 2020, per 247Sports. Fan unrest on social media mirrors Penn State’s “Fire Franklin” cries, but Nebraska’s 22-year title drought and their 4-8 average seasons since 2016 highlight the risks of chasing that mythical “elite” coach—the potential of destabilizing Penn State’s consistent 10-win program under Franklin for a gamble that could yield decades of actual mediocrity.
Alas, this terrible upset, after an emotional loss to a legitimate top ranked team, could be the final blow for Franklin. If he can’t get this veteran and talented group to get over the hump, a win in Columbus or a National Championship, the pressure may finally be at the point where he’ll part ways. However, it will likely be a victory short lived for those demanding his firing. First, it will cost $48.7 million to buy out his contract, draining vital resources. Second, odds are he will be like Andy Reid going from Philly to Kansas City and suddenly all those 50-50 games tilt his way—while Penn State slides as players go elsewhere and coaches come and go.
Update: Things just went from bad to worse for Penn State. This week they have lost to Northwestern, at home, and drop to 3-3 on the season. And the opponents only getting tougher from here on out. Football in a very emotional sport and this team just can’t get it done on the field anymore. The chemistry you would think would be there by returning so many key players just isn’t. There was a ton of very negative pressure being put on the program with the “fire Franklin” and that would rob anyone of their enthusiasm. But at this point, this far into a coaches tenure, seeing this kind of collapse? It really does not matter if it is a self-fulfilling prophecy of the fans themselves. We were very oddly victims of our own success last year, going into the season #2 in the nation just shows how high the expectations had been, but we lost to Oregon in the first real test, then had a disaster against a resurgent UCLA team, and now did not rebound at home against Northwestern. Now even the remote hope of playoffs is off the table, Drew Allar is out for the season with an injury, Oregon lost to Indiana and there’s really nothing positive to say about this team. There are certain the great individual efforts, but they really have not processed (or at least not fast enough) towards being a team and maybe because they’ve all lost faith in each other? It really does not matter the exact cause or who is most at fault (Franklin, the booing fans or just the fates), this is probably the time to go in a different direction at the top. Until now I could hold on to “oh so close” and the probabilities. But I didn’t expect the wheels to come off like this. And Saturday again it was another grinding painful defeat with the promising stop opening series ending with Allar being picked. With stupid penalties giving the Wildcats new life. It was a loss that was self-inflicted. There is no recovery for Franklin now, redemption meant winning out the regular season and now one must wonder if we can win even one conference game. Traveling to Columbus this year will be brutal, I fear, because we probably won’t have that rivalry mojo that at least kept the games respectably close. The program will need to rebuild regardless and better to do that with someone else at the top. That is going to shut up the idiot naysayers for at least a year. It will give a recruiting bounce if we get the right name. And there might even been a surge of NIL money if many of the wealthy Penn State alumni were also on the fire Franklin bandwagon. The biggest disappointment with me, in all of this, is the fact that we got what we deserved. Those who were still yelling “fire Franklin” after last year could not appreciate success—winning was taken for granted. Now they will know rock bottom and there’s a likelihood that the slide won’t stop after Franklin. What coach or player, with a choice to go elsewhere, will want to play in such a toxic environment?
Irregular Ideation 