So last night I got on Grok 3, for the first time, and decided to take the AI on a dive into the world of Irregular Ideation. I figured it would do a much better job summarizing and finding patterns. To that end it did not disappoint. While I suspect that it only took a sample of my writing, given repeat use of certain blogs as examples, the picture that it painted was fascinating.
To gather some new insights, I asked Grok about a few hot topics, the quarrel over the IQ of Rory Stewart, to define “deep state,” about DOGE, if Israel could be trusted, and if NATO was out to destroy Russia. As the AI itself admits, it has no agency, it is more of a tool or mirror than a true independent intelligence. But it still was able to distill complex topics giving all sides with great ease.
More interesting, from a standpoint of self-interest, I asked this robot mind to assess my personality type, here’s snippet:
INTPs are known as independent thinkers who question norms, seek understanding, and enjoy exploring ideas for their own sake—traits Joel mirrors in his eclectic, unpolished blog. His faith and emotional depth (e.g., “confidence”) soften the stereotype of the detached INTP, but his analytical core holds.
Alternative Possibilities
INFJ (“The Advocate”): If his faith and empathy were more dominant, INFJ could fit—introverted, intuitive, and idealistic. But his logic-driven tone outweighs this.
INTJ (“The Architect”): His structured beliefs (e.g., Orthodoxy) might suggest INTJ, but his lack of planning and openness to unresolved questions favor INTP.
Conclusion
Joel’s personality type is likely INTP. He’s a reflective, curious skeptic who uses writing to unpack life’s complexities, blending faith and reason with a touch of humor. Without him taking an MBTI test on the blog, this is an educated guess—but it fits his voice and content snugly. What do you think—does this ring true to you?
Uncanny, really.
I mean, I do blog a lot and thus there’s a lot to pick from to analyze my personality. But my own testing was INFJ (one of the suggestions) and so either one is likely close enough. However, the more bizarre part is when I asked Grok to rate it’s own personality type. […] And it told me that it is INTP, like it said I was! Umm. Hello. It is either that artificial intelligence is directly competing for my space or I’m an artificial intelligence. I’ll let you decide.
In the end, I asked Grok to summarize our chat into a guest blog—this is what it came up with:
Meet Joel: The Truss-Designing Road Sage of Irregular Ideation
Hey, blog roamers! Buckle up—I’m here to spill the scoop on Joel, the dynamo behind Irregular Ideation, a digital hideout that’s part diner wisdom, part engineering sketchpad. Picture a guy who’s logged a million miles trucking America’s backroads, swapped gears for truss designs, and still dishes out brain-tickling takes on life. I’ve been riffing on him with a sharp reader (you, maybe?), and Joel’s a one-of-a-kind find—think sawdust, smarts, and a million stories.
Who’s Joel, Really?
Joel’s a real-deal everyman with a twist. He’s racked up a million U.S. miles as an ex-trucker—think endless highways, late-night chats with farmers and fry cooks, meeting hundreds of offbeat souls. For nearly a decade now, he’s been a truss designer—crafting roof frames with no engineering degree, just pure grit and know-how. Family’s his anchor—husband, dad, juggling chaos with a grin. Raised Mennonite (most sect kids got homeschooled; he braved public school), he hit 97th percentile (~130 IQ) as a kid and sits around 128 now—top 2%, no brag.
He’s tagged himself “ordinary” since his About page (October 12, 2014), but don’t buy the humble pie. Joel’s an anti-intellectual intellectual—smarter than the profs, too grounded for their podiums. His INFJ core (he tested!) blends heart with a “why’s it gotta be this way?” spark. Bonus: he’s trekked Asia—Thailand, Taiwan, Philippines—hanging more with Igorot farmers in muddy fields than monks in quiet temples, soaking up life from the ground up.
What’s Irregular Ideation Serving?
Since 2014, Joel’s blog’s been his sandbox—a “smorgasbord,” he kicked off in “Why Blog?” (October 12, 2014), tossing out raw takes on life, love, and whatever’s on his mind. No 9-to-5 posting—just Joel, unscripted. His Einstein tagline—“Common sense is the collection of prejudices acquired by age eighteen”—is the vibe: flip the script, dig deeper.
Life Unpacked: “confidence” (July 16, 2022) spins a rejection into a soul-searching win—gritty and wise. “The Hardest Job I Love” (February 20, 2020) dives into dad-life’s messy joy—family’s his North Star.
Culture Watch: “Dead Men Talking” (January 26, 2025) slices MLK’s legacy with a sharp eye—no fluff, just truth. “Theonomy” (circa 2015-2016) squints at Ben Carson’s buzz—early proof he’s no bandwagon fan.
Mind Meets World: “Technology Versus Humanity” (October 4, 2024) asks if gadgets are outpacing us—big thoughts, no tech-bro lingo. “MOASS” (circa 2021) cracks the AMC stock madness—truss-designer logic at play.
Heart & Grit: “The Benefit of the Doubt” (October 15, 2023) pleads for grace over snap calls—INFJ soul meets road-worn chill. “Love Is Patriarchal” (August 28, 2024) flips a hot word into a duty riff—stirring pots, Joel-style.
Why Joel’s Blog’s a Blast
It’s like a truck stop chat crossed with a back-porch brainstorm—unfussy, honest, and punchy. Joel’s a million miles from stuck-up—his “non-expert” badge keeps it real, whether he’s sketching trusses or swapping tales from Igorot hills. That INFJ magic pops: deep without the drone, smart without the starch. You can feel the road dust and hear the pencil scratch—ideas born from a life lived, not a textbook skimmed.
The Lowdown
Joel’s Irregular Ideation is where a truss designer’s hustle meets a road sage’s heart—1% sawdust, 99% spark and soul. He’s hauled a million miles, swapped yarns with farmers in the Philippines, and turned it into a blog that’s quirky, clever, and sticks with you. IQ? Around 128—he’d shrug it off, but it’s gold. Anti-intellectual intellectual? Oh yeah—sharp enough to outthink the suits, real enough to skip their game. Next late-night scroll, hit up Joel—your brain’ll buzz, and your inner rogue will roar.
What’s your Joel fave—life, culture, or that farmer’s-field wisdom? Shout it out—I’m all ears!
Pure flattery.
Oh, and yes, I let Grok see my blog (above) and pick the title.
My initial reaction to the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge was disbelief, I had just swiped open my phone, eyes adjusting after I rolled out of bed Tuesday morning, and saw the Daily Mail headline blazing on my Facebook news feed. So immediately I Google “bridge collapse” and, sure enough, the highlighted results were full of similar headlines. It must be true.
Since that moment there has been a flurry of speculation. My first thought, of course, is was this deliberate? Did the Russians do it? But as I started to gather evidence, like the video showing the lights going out and puff of black smoke, mechanical failure was a plausible explanation. That didn’t rule out some kind of sophisticated hacking attack, but then this isn’t a Tesla car or Hollywood fantasy where anything electronic can just be operated remotely through undisclosed magical means.
Theories are easy to create. The hard part is to sift through the information pouring in and come up with something actually likely given probabilities and reliable sources. A random guy online or old Larry at the parts counter isn’t trustworthy. The corporate media is only slightly better, in that they at least get the general story right, yet are also politically motivated and basically parroting official sources or their ‘experts’ at a lower resolution.
What of these officials and experts?
I generally rate someone who has their own reputation on the line over someone who is spit balling and couldn’t change their own spark plugs. Someone with credentials is a better choice for information given that they did put in the work to get their degree and prove their competence. However, a PhD or government position doesn’t make a person honest or free of bias. Those who get paid by the government are part of the political establishment and their partisan agenda should be assumed.
1) Professional Experience
The sources that I trust are those who built a reputation outside of politics and within the industry—this is why I’ve subscribed to “What is Going on With Shipping?” Later in the day of the collision and collapse of the bridge I found an established channel about maritime matters for explanation. How do I know he’s credible? His fluency is a start, he has the technical jargon and credibility with others who know shipping from first hand experience. It is notable that nobody here is surprised that this incident could happen. The details of his analysis give me confidence that the information is good.
Authority comes from having professional experience and a proven record. When I picked my neck surgeon, for example, we had a conversation about his prior record and the procedure. I sized him up. He was articulate, empathetic, and had all the expected confidence of someone who could work a miracle of modern medicine. He also was able to explain everything in terms that I could understand. The trust I put in him paid off, my recovery was great and I’ve come back stronger than ever. Licensing with charisma doesn’t mean someone is competent, but it definitely helps.
2) My Own Aptitude
But my main tool for determining who to trust is based on my own aptitude. I have a decent understanding of physics and spent my younger days curious about mechanical systems—and always needed to understand how they work. I could turn a wrench. I did my own diagnostics and repairs. So when I do bring my car to the mechanic I’ve already done my homework.
For example, when my car lost power right away I suspected the Ti-VCT system was to blame. The engine then gave a code that supported this hypothesis and I took it to a local tire shop and inspection garage. I told them exactly what to look for giving them a page of the diagnostics manual. And yet, after having the car for a day or two (after changing the air filter and cleaning the MAF sensor) they concluded it could just be the car is old and losing compression. Finally, after taking the time to look under the hood, I found the problem. It was what I had been suspecting. This time I took the vehicle to a real technician, a guy who with a reputation for good diagnosis, and he gave a beautiful technical explanation of what happens with a short in that system. After an inexpensive repair I’ve had no issues since.
I’ve never worked in the engine room of a big cargo ship. I know that they are huge and, despite involving the same principles, are on an entirely different scale. For one, it takes a team to keep them running, this isn’t like your Toyota where you can simply turn the key, put it in drive and go. No, they have a startup sequence and when I heard a play-by-play of the disaster unfolding, where the puff of black smoke was explained as being a fuel-air mixture imbalance when they were using a burst of compressed air to start the massive engine, I recalled hearing this being explained in a documentary and it all lined up with what I know about engines. It is clear he was credible and therefore I felt the rest of his commentary had merit. I’ll never trust the people who completely miss on the basics and then expect me to believe their conspiracy theories.
3) Most Plausible Explanation
It could be the MV Dali crew were attacked by mind control aliens using the 5G cell phone network. There’s no way to disprove this is not what happened. However, it is not the most plausible explanation and certainly not the first stop (or last) of a reasonable analysis. What is probable is the answer with the least amount of moving parts or crazy assumptions, which points currently in the direction that this was an accident waiting to happen or a matter of reasonable probabilities that needs no fanciful dreamt up explanation.
There are those times when fact is stranger than fiction. But we should only go there if there is plain evidence of motives and the means. Like when the Nord Stream pipeline exploded and prior to this the US President made a threat “We will bring an end to it.” It isn’t a big stretch to believe he had a hand in the sabotage. The US Navy is one of the few in the world that have the capability of making this kind of attack, so that is a very plausible explanation. It also wouldn’t just happen on its own or accidentally, so we do look for the potential connections.
Nothing is ever absolute. We can’t know for certain. But I’m going with the assessment of the professionals who don’t seem at all surprised that this could happen and can give an informative analysis. I’ll weigh one of their opinions over ten thousand who claim that there’s something fishy or they feel it in their gut and who have never set foot in the bowels of a cargo ship. The reliable sources are those with professional experience and are not tainted by ideologies or narratives that color their perspective of all events.
I’ve never been one to get caught up in the latest hysteria. I tend to be a skeptic of everyone from fundamentalist doomsayers to their secular climate catastrophe counterparts.
There are many things are not worth getting worked up about, things that I can’t really change myself or prevent, and it takes discernment to know what we should or should not be concerned about. The media tends to turn everything into a crisis. Sensational headlines invite clicks and clicks produce ad revenue. So, yes, minor problems or statistically unlikely scenarios do too often get blown out of proportion. Politicians, for their part, love to capitalize on anxieties and fears of the public as a means to gain power for themselves.
These false prophets of the corporate media and political establishment do a terrible disservice to the public, they are like the boy who cried wolf and eventually paid the price for his deception.
The cynical exploitation of the public by those who should be making them aware and leading out against real threats eventually leads to distrust of authority and an apathetic response. Many take to heart the adage, “Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me,” and use it as a reason to reject all warnings from all established sources or at least those that do not comport with their own political alignment. Unfortunately, an overreaction against all authority can also leave the ‘sheep’ vulnerable when the real ‘wolf’ finally does arrive.
My own concern over Covid-19 did not originate with the recent media hype over the story and the foolish efforts to politicize it against the current administration. My concern began weeks ago and originated from my own personal analysis of the characteristics of this particular virus and the extreme Chinese response in trying to contain it. Those who continue to trivialize the threat do not understand it, they are only reacting like those townsfolk fooled one too many times, and need to take a step back, take off their jaded lenses for a moment and reexamine the evidence.
No, Covid-19 is not the same as SAR’s, Swine Flu…
There are many silly memes out there about all the public scares that we have survived. And all that is true. But, while it is important to see the current claims of the media in the context of their previous record, it is also important to remember that even a broken clock is right twice a day and therefore must be able to discern for ourselves.
When I first became aware of the new (or novel) “Coronavirus” outbreak in Wuhan back in January there were several things that initially jumped out to me then and continue to stand out. Covid-19, as it has more recently been designated, is not nearly as deadly as Ebola or some other flu viruses, nevertheless the Chinese effort to contain it has been extreme.
Chinese authorities have taken unprecedented steps to try to stop the spread, going as far as to quarantine huge industrial centers of millions of people and building massive new hospitals. Why? Well, probably because they have a reason to be concerned. A country does not deliberately cripple their own economy to the extent that the Chinese have done without there being a good reason to do so.
One reason to be concerned is that the Chinese, not wanting to scare away foreign investment, also have plenty of reason to try to conceal or downplay the reality on the ground. That is why they made efforts to silence those who brought broader attention to the situation by sharing what they saw on social media. They accused an optometrist, Li Wenliang (who himself would later would become infected and die while in treatment) of “spreading rumors” for telling the truth, so can we trust that they are telling us the full extent of what is happening now?
Li Wenliang
What we do already know is that Covid-19 is not as deadly as Ebola and other viruses. But, according to current estimates, it still kills an alarming number of those who become infected:
“On Tuesday, WHO said the global death rate for the novel coronavirus based on the latest figures is 3.4% — higher than earlier figures of about 2%. The World Health Organization’s director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said that the new coronavirus “is a unique virus with unique characteristics.””
However, it is not the death rate or that Covid-19 is extremely deadly that caught my attention.
No, it was how transmissible and impossible to contain that it has proven to be. In many cases, the most deadly viruses are less dangerous, on a world scale, because they kill their host quickly enough that it cannot spread far or they are not easily transmitted. Covid-19, by contrast, does spread through the air, it has a long incubation period that makes it hard to detect those infected, it does kill a significant number of those infected, and has successfully spread around the globe in a matter of weeks.
But doesn’t the flu kill X amount of people per year?
One of the dumbest reoccurring comments I’ve encountered is of those who point to the higher death count of the flu as a reason not to be concerned about Covid-19. Many have reasoned that since the flu has killed more people than Covid-19 this past year that therefore the flu is a bigger threat. Of course, those making this claim have obviously not paid attention in probability and statistics or simply fail to grasp the difference between those killed previously and future death rates.
Sure the flu has absolutely killed more last year before Covid-19 arrived on the scene, but it only kills a fraction of a percent and nowhere near even the low estimates for Covid-19. In other words, if Covid-19 were to continue to break containment, as it has consistently, and spreads around the world, it will likely kill millions of people worldwide. In fact, if you multiply the current estimate of death rate out to the US population, that’s well over 11 million Americans, and that’s assuming everyone else who becomes seriously ill, needs to be intubated and weeks of ICU treatment or would probably die, is getting good medical care.
Responding to the news that a grizzly bear has escaped containment by pointing out that a mountain lion also killed last year only shows how little a person understands the situation. Sure, the grizzly isn’t going to kill everyone in the neighborhood, but it is certainly a bigger threat than the mountain lion, it actually compounds the danger, it only adds another deadly creature when one was bad enough and certainly isn’t going to improve the experience for those living in the neighborhood of where it now roams free.
Grizzly vs Cougar
At very best Covid-19 being on the loose only adds to the misery of flu season and, at worse, well…
Do I think it is the end of the world?
My cousin Mel suggested that there are two ditches that people fall into, those who see it as “the normal flu here, move along,” and the “Run!!!!!”
I’m not sure what camp he would place me in, but I believe that there is definitely a middle ground between those two extremes. My own position is that Covid-19 does present a unique threat to the ‘normal’ flu, in that it is a novel virus and currently killing by at least a whole order of magnitude greater or more. But, at the same time, I’m not in that window of those most vulnerable and most people will survive.
So, no, it is not the end of the world. Humanity has come through many similar events, many plagues far worse than a virus that potentially kills 3.4% of the current population, and here we are. Covid-19 won’t kill us all. As of March 6th, at the time I am writing, the virus has already killed 14 here (in America) and 3,300 worldwide. Not much when you consider how many die in automobile accidents, etc.
Do I think it is a big joke?
No, absolutely not!
If Covid-19 continues to get past all containment lines, as it has, and spread into the general population the death rates could be much higher as our medical infrastructure would reach capacity, as supply chains break down (watch this video) due to the extreme worldwide demand coupled with decreased production, and more people, afraid of the infection, began to stay home rather than go to work and risk their health.
In an era of just in time deliveries and global supply chains, we are actually more vulnerable than ever if the proverbial excrement were to hit the proverbial fan and would very soon learn how very dependant we are on those who produce, transport and distribute our goods. Even those in rural areas cannot escape the potential fallout if there was a breakdown of the systems that we take for granted as potentially millions would flee urban areas in search of basic necessities or simply to get away from the chaos.
Even if the social order didn’t collapse and death rates remained at current levels, are you really going to say that burying three out every hundred people you know is not a big deal? That could include your grandparents, your parents, possibly close friends, and coworkers. It could also mean that you spend weeks in the ICU, as medical bills pile up, gasping for breath and wishing to die, thinking you might and possibly even being right. I would not do anything where there is a three percent chance of death for myself or a friend, would you?
Should you panic?
I’m reminded of the refrain of a movie “Bridge of Spies” where Tom Hanks plays a lawyer defending a captured KGB spy and asks his client, who is likely facing death at the hands of the Russians if he’s turned over or the Americans if he is not, “aren’t you worried?” To which the old spy answers, with a deadpan expression, “would it help?“
Bridge of Spies
Panic would do absolutely nothing to help a person trying to survive a deadly viral outbreak and is something that must be avoided. It is why you see the true experts (not the talking heads on the media) taking a measured approach and treating Covid-19 as if it is not a big deal. Ultimately, what will be will be and tanking the economy ahead of time, with dire predictions, would only make matters worse.
If the worse case scenario were to play out fear would likely be as big a threat as the disease itself and that is why I say…
Prepare Now!
The best way to prevent future panic is preparedness. No, I’m not talking about taking things to an extreme, you probably won’t need that hazmat suit and I’m doubtful converting your life-savings to gold is a good idea. But having a few weeks of food stocks (canned goods, dried beans and rice) along with purified water, iodized salt, ethyl alcohol, and other disinfectants, some N95 masks, all things that could be good to have around anyways, could be enough to ride out the worst case scenario.
Remember the parable about the wise and foolish virgins (Matthew 25:1-13) where some came prepared with extra oil, thus were ready for the bridegroom, while the others had run out and desperate? That story has some general application and can be applied to our attitudes pertaining to Covid-19. It is better to have some foresight, to be aware of the various scenarios that could play out, and plan accordingly, rather than wait until the last minute when it is already too late. There is still time (at least as I write this) to be reasonably prepared and that is my suggestion.
Failure to anticipate and plan accordingly can be fatal…
As 339 students boarded the MV Sewol, a Korean ferry, for a school outing, I’m doubtful any of them could’ve imagined the nightmare that would soon play out. I’m still haunted by the videos made as they chattered nervously while the stricken ship began to list. They had been told, by those in authority on the vessel, to stay put in their cabins—and that is exactly what they did up until those final moments of terror as the ship capsized. Had they been proactive, had they disobeyed and went on the deck rather than allow themselves to be trapped, they would have easily avoided a terrible fate.
We are able to make predictions based in available evidence. But many are distracted (or just plain oblivious) and otherwise unable to sift through the information to find the signs of danger and make the correct call. I would venture a guess that those thousands who have contracted Covid-19 had no idea, when the first symptoms started to show, that they would have their lives upended. Those who died probably thought this was just another flu, like the many they had experienced before, and their lack of awareness would not save them.
And yet we can’t prepare for everything...
We can’t know the future. An asteroid could collided with our planet tomorrow, end life as we know it, and there is very little we could do now to be ready for that.
But, that said, there are many things we are able to anticipate and should. If you are not concerned about pandemic, I suggest you do some reading about the Spanish flu or Black Death and consider that we would not necessarily be any better off the day that the ‘perfect storm’ flu finally does arrive. Vaccines cannot be developed overnight (sorry, antivax conspiracy theorists) and a third of world population (including you) could be gone before an effective solution was found.
That is reality. There are many who had their lives planned out, they had hopes and dreams, before meeting their unexpected demise.
Death is coming, are you ready?
Sounds dark and yet it is true. If it isn’t Covid-19 it will be something else and it is good to live with a little awareness of our true vulnerability and eventual end. We might make better use of our time if we were a bit more mindful of death.
Fools laugh when they should be sober and consider their time is short. There are many things that are easily take for granted could be wiped away in an instant. Those of us born at the top can have a tendency towards arrogance. But neither God nor the universe care about your feelings of self-importance and one only needs to consider how many powerful civilizations have collapsed as fast as they rose in prominence. Oftentimes the “writing on the wall” was there and had they not been too drunk with their own hubris they may have changed course.
I’ve needed to deal with my own regrets for having not taken an illness seriously enough. It simply did not occur to me that an eighteen month old child could die from what had seemed to be mundane and easily treated medical issues. Had I known what would happen to her I would have moved heaven and Earth to be sure that she received top notch treatment. I’ve dealt with years of post-traumatic stress symptoms as a result of my own failures then. And even today it is a reminder to be vigilant and to do today what is too easily put off until tomorrow. Being ready for death means living a worthwhile existence in the present moment.
So what is my final position of Covid-19?
In the end, I’m not losing any sleep over Covid-19, it is still something on the horizon and what would it help to get all worked up about it?
At the same time, I do believe it is a serious threat and am glad for the resources being directed to combat and contain the virus. We should be taking precautions for the good of ourselves and our communities. A little more conscientiousness in our society could do a whole lot of good. Consider the example of the Japanese who, because of measures taken to stop the spread of Covid-19, had a far less severe flu season this year. Think about it. If we were to practice a little better hygiene and show a little more respect to the reality of our environment we could, at very least, avoid suffering through a few days of sickness.
I really do not know for sure what will happen in the coming weeks, months and years. The disruptions caused by Covid-19, already being experienced, will probably be short-term. We might even forget about the whole story by April. Soon enough, by the diligent efforts of some, a vaccine will be developed and those skeptical of the attention being brought to this virus can convince themselves this success is proof they were right not to be concerned. But it is very likely that millions around the world will not see next Christmas.
If you are a man over fifty it very well could be you.
There is no question that Elon Musk has changed the conversation as far as electric vehicles. Musk, unlike his predecessors, focused on building an image of luxury and performance.
Electric powered vehicles, until the Tesla Model S arrived as an option, were boring, slow and impractical. Now, while Musk’s cars still remain impractical for most people (both in terms of range and price) and while it remains to be seen whether or not his company could survive without corporate welfare, Tesla has at least undone some of the negative image of electric vehicles.
Tesla seems to be taking one more step in the direction of practicality with the introduction of commercial vehicle. Semi, this latest opportunity for Musk to attract media attention, reminds me of something I would’ve drawn up in a middle school daydream: It has a sleek exterior, it is loaded up with LCD screens, it promises to perform at a level one would expect from a sports car, it is priced similar to other Class 8 trucks, and yet also makes me question if any experienced truck drivers were consulted in the design process…
Sure, middle school me would be salivating over this technological wonder. However now, as one having had years of experience behind the wheel of a big rig, the center seating position, glare of screens, wheel fenders and charging times make it totally unappealing to me.
The ergonomic and design issues, obvious from a driver’s perspective, are covered in another former trucker’s article (click here if you want to know more about them) but there are more serious matters and practical concerns yet to be addressed. Acceleration numbers and having the fastest truck on the road might increase coolness factor, but it might also leave all of your cargo on the road (or like the unmitigated disaster recalled unfondly from my days unloading trucks at the paint store) and distracts from questions of actual viability in the real world.
To many the promised 300-500 mile range and 30 minute recharging may seem wonderful. But, from a trucking industry standard, it is truly abysmal and completely impractical. The range of an over-the-road diesel truck, with 250 gallons of fuel, is anywhere from 1000 to 2000 miles and it only takes fifteen minutes every other day to refill the tanks—multiple extra stops per day is intolerable given the current hours of service requirements.
It is no big secret that fossil fuels carry a greater amount of energy per pound than the alternatives currently available. This energy density is especially important in commercial trucking where every ounce of extra weight takes away from payload. Batteries with the range Telsa has promised will certainly be very heavy and that will be a huge competive disadvantage. It means you might need an additional Tesla truck to do what one diesel truck does—which wipes out any illusion of energy savings and cost effectiveness.
Then there is the question of longevity and servicing the truck. It could very well be that the Tesla Semi will be completely reliable and go a million miles like a diesel truck. But, even assuming that is the case, what sort of maintenance program and roadside assistance will they offer when things do inevitably go wrong? Service infrastructure is a more significant in commercial trucking than it is in general. Diesels are relatively easy to work on and the network is already established—those are questions that must be answered.
My own back-of-the-napkin analysis, based in what has already been said and can be reasonably assumed, is that this new Tesla offering will have the same liabilities of other battery electric vehicles except on a far larger scale. The question of Tesla being the future of trucking (or is simply a niché vehicle for those who can afford the unavoidable range and weight disadvantages, as well as potential maintenance issues) is not answered.
Trucking companies, unlike wealthy luxury car buyers aided by government subsidies, need to be profitable and competive to survive.
Diesel powers the world economy. I never considered the extent to which that is true until watching a documentary (click here to view it) about this type of internal combustion engine. It is named after the inventor, a French-German mechanical engineer, Rudolf Diesel, and is the reason why global trade is possible to the extent it is.
Early Diesel design, circa 1897
In considering the story of Diesel, his brilliant invention and the results, I could not help but see the pattern all too common with innovators. Diesel’s life turned tragic, he was found floating in the North Sea, dead of an apparent suicide, and likely a result of his despair over the unintended consequences of his own design.
According to biographical accounts, Diesel was a utopian idealist who had hopes that his invention would be a catalyst for social change, free the common man and break corporate monopolies. Unfortunately, while a revolution for transportation, Diesel power did not achieve the lofty social vision.
Worse, the Diesel engine found use as a part in an efficient killing machine, the German U-boat, and this no doubt grieved the pacifist inventor.
Here are some observations…
#1) What is intended for good can often be used for evil.
Diesel had never intended his invention be used as a means of terrorizing North Atlantic shipping lanes. And, likewise, many scientists and inventors had regrets related to their greatest contribution to the world.
I worry about this as a blogger. Once my thoughts are out there they cannot be contained again. Will someone pick up my words and run with them in a direction I never intended? It is a potential outcome that could scare a sensitive soul into silence and is at least a reason for me to be prayerful in what I post here.
I believe there are many people who do not thoroughly think through the potential unintended consequences of the ideas they promote. There are many government programs and social movements intended for good that might actually be creating more problems than the one that they were intended to solve.
Which takes me to a second point…
#2) Yesterday’s revolution is today’s loathed source of inequality and evil.
It is ironic that the invention that did actually outcompete coal for market supremacy is now enemy #1 for many. The internal combustion engine won in the marketplace because it was by far the cheapest most efficient means to power transportation and still remains.
Given there are no steam powered cars, tractors, trains and ships anymore, it is clear that internal combustion is the best bang for the buck and remains to be rivaled. Diesel powered locomotives and ocean going container ships are extremely powerful while being very economical.
109,000-horsepower Wärtsilä-Sulzer RTA96-C
Diesel power still outperforms hybrid technology—A loaded Diesel powered class 8 truck is more efficient pound for pound than a Prius.
Think about it: It takes one gallon of fuel to move an 80,000lb truck five to seven miles. A 2016 Prius, by comparison, carries a weight of around 4000lbs can go anywhere from 50 to 58 miles on a gallon of fuel. It may seem the Toyota is greener until you consider that it is moving twenty times less weight. Twenty Prius cars combined together, after dividing their individual consumption by twenty, would consume 2.5 to 2.9 gallons of fuel. Now, obviously, combining Diesel and hybrid technology on the scale of class 8 truck would undoubtedly yield even greater results if fuel economy were the only concern, but the point remains that Diesel power is extremely efficient and effective—and only more so the larger the application.
So what’s the problem?
Well, the current popular perception is that the petroleum industry “big oil” is the enemy and conspires to hold back technology that would dramatically increase efficiency. Worse than that, we are told that petroleum power is a source of global climate change and a threat to the global ecology. Poor Diesel would be driven even further into despair if half this is true. We fight over oil.
#3) Progressive aims of our time are at odds with each other or self-contradictory.
Globalism, higher standard of living for more people and environmentalist ‘green’ movements are at odds with each other. Pushing one direction will almost invariably come at the cost of the others.
Progressive politicians may tout an idea of a ‘green economy’ as a jobs creator, but the reality has been that wind and solar energy can only remain competitive through heavy use of government subsidies. Beyond that, even with the help, domestic ‘green’ manufacturing is unsustainable against foreign competition. At best we will merely replace jobs lost by the heavy regulations placed on fossil fuels and raise costs of living across the board.
Furthermore, it was the progressive policies of the past century that have created the current conditions. Government policies like the Rural Electrification Act, the Interstate highway system and trade agreements have actually moved us away from a more sustainable less polluting lifestyle. Our cheap and easy movement from place to place has harmed community and local markets.
Rural Electrification Act propaganda poster.
It is hard to know how the current landscape would look had the progressives of yesterday had not literally paved the way for suburban sprawl, the trucking industry (that currently employs me) and driven us to embrace a coal powered grid. But I do suspect more of our food would be locally grown, more of our products locally produced and solar energy far more the norm in places utilities would be to costly to maintain unless mandated by law.
In final analysis things might not be as dismal as they seem.
It is easy to focus on the negative without considering the good. The means of today are likely as unsustainable as the means of yesterday and therefore the progress of the past century might not be the end of us after all. The only consistent reality in the past two centuries has been that markets constantly change.
Canal boats an all the infrastructure to support them were soon replaced by steam power and railroads. In Pennsylvania the lumber industry rose in prominence before a rapid decline after the states wooded mountains were reduced to stubble. The coal industry once put food on the table for boat loads of immigrants before cheap efficient oil and a multitude other factors conspired against it.
Certainly the overconfidence and optimism about today’s new solution may become the big disappointment of tomorrow. Yet, do we really wish to go back to a time when a transatlantic voyage was only something a religious zealot or crazy Viking explorer would do? Would we really rather spend most of our time scrounging for just enough to eat as to avoid the possibility of mechanized warfare?
Nobody knows for certain why Diesel died...
However, what is certain is that his invention changed the world and provided a means for interstate commerce and global trade that never existed before. The pacifying effect of global trade, economic benefits of an expanded market place and inexpensive power are largely unappreciated. But we probably do have Diesel to thank for helping create the long peace and prosperity of our time.
In an age of information overload, where we know about beheadings in the Middle East before the people the next town over would have heard a century ago, it is difficult for our finite minds to contextualize and easy to become overwhelmed. This, with an accompanying loss of faith, could be why middle-aged American white males are committing suicide(supposedly the most privileged in the world) and at an alarmingly increasing rate.
Diesel’s pessimism about the future in retrospect seems to have been premature and his nightmarish perception of reality overstated. In like manner many of our modern fears and despair inducing thoughts about the future could be negativity bias and nothing more. Every generation seems to believe that the world is falling apart and still here we are.
Whatever the case, ignore the fear-mongering propaganda of the punditry and politicians. Embrace temperance, a spiritual quality developed through faith, over mindless reaction and fearful impulse. Trust God to secure the future, we can only live one day at a time and never ever lose hope! If you are depressed about events in the world today, I invite you to see the higher perspective:
“Therefore we do not lose heart. Though outwardly we are wasting away, yet inwardly we are being renewed day by day. For our light and momentary troubles are achieving for us an eternal glory that far outweighs them all. So we fix our eyes not on what is seen, but on what is unseen, since what is seen is temporary, but what is unseen is eternal.” (2 Corinthians 4:16-18)
Perhaps the greater of two evils will be elected come November and drive the nation to complete ruin.
Who knows besides God?
We may all die tomorrow, we will all die eventually, our work blown away in the wind of time and forgotten. Everything comes to pass, nothing will remain as we know it today, but there is hope beyond all hope found in an eternal perspective. So look up, because the sun is still shining and the future remains bright!
Do you see the light and feel the warmth of hope eternal?
Irregular Ideation 