nature

Too Cruel To Be Coincidence

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There is this sort of silly thought I have had, which has some legs, about the true nature of the universe and how unlikely it seemed that our friend’s daughter would fall victim to the currents of the Susquehanna river.  I realize this is more just a hiccup of my own mind than an actual reality, but what are the chances?  What are the actual probabilities we would know another Filipino-American couple with so many similarities and has a tragedy like this happen?

I ran my hunch through Grok.  What are the chances that another couple, one of them a German-American with neck or back issues (like me) the other a recent immigrant from the Philippines who came with a child and has also (like my wife) recently given birth to a second child, losing their ten-year-old daughter in a drowning incident just a week prior to Mother’s Day?  And how likely is it that I would have experienced the loss of a close friend’s child twice?  The probabilities are so infinitesimal that the very existence of life is more likely than this:

The probabilities of the specific scenarios you described—knowing an ethnic German man in Pennsylvania with a Filipino wife and children matching your family’s profile (0.00462%), his 10-year-old daughter drowning in the Susquehanna River on a specific weekend (1 in 2.82 trillion), and being friends with two women who lost children tragically (0.566%)—are all significantly lower than the probability of life existing in the universe, which is nearly certain (1) due to the vast number of planets (10²²). Even in an extreme pessimistic scenario where life is exceedingly rare (0.36%), only the third scenario approaches or slightly exceeds it, while the others remain far less likely. The universe’s immense scale makes life’s existence highly probable, whereas the hyper-specific nature of your scenarios, especially the drowning event, drives their probabilities to near-zero.

All this is just an extended version of that age-old question: “Why me?”  

This weird feeling of this being a tragedy too perfectly scripted to be real is simply the hallucination of a mind searching for meaning where there is none.  

It is no different from when I—in delusion of religion and looking for answers—had assigned meaning to the ‘impossibility’ (a romantic interest) randomly picking up a paper, leftover from Sunday school class in the same location, and then reading from it “with God all things are possible” right as she walked past me—renewing my hope to continue my foolish pursuit of faith and love.  Belief in a divine plan only led to more disappointment.  It is what it is—as she told me as an answer.  A coincidence is no more meaningful than we have made it.  

apophenia

Truly, we could throw our lasso around any circumstance, any set of facts, and find it to be highly improbable.  But, after the fact, if it has happened, the probability is always 100%.  Basically everything is unlikely right before it has happened and this why those Lee Strobel type of apologetic ‘cases’ aren’t very compelling for a critical thinker.  They are too based on assumptions and deciding what matters based on our own window of understanding—never considering the other possibilities.  

It is actually very likely that I know another Filipino-American couple, involving a single mother and a lonely guy similar to me, given that we deliberately connected to the local Pinoy community for sake of my wife.  And it was our similarities that always gave us something to talk about.  He was employed in an engineering related field, same as me, and going through the visa process.  As far as the tragedy, around 4000 unintentionally drown in the US per year (900 children) and spring weather (near Mother’s Day) is just likely to bring people to the river.

My foreign-born friends, in retrospect, were more vulnerable.  Those who grew up in the Susquehanna valley have a bit more fear of the river.  The waters may appear to placid, but we also know about those floods which have ripped through communities and how it respects nobody.  You’ll try to pet a bison up until you see the first person gored.  We simply don’t know risk until we have seen it for ourselves.  But then I also know that the mother, in this case, was always extremely cautious and only looked away for seconds before hearing the commotion.

What is so hard to accept is that reality that this world is full of danger.  Both conspiracy theorists and left-wing control freaks refuse to deal straight up with a world where death can occur without some dark plot and that this won’t be solved with politics.  I’ve never been under that delusion.  However, I have had this good things happen to good people expectation going in to life.  My Pollyannish hopes have been rebuffed too harshly and consistently to continue holding to them.  In truth, the natural world does not care about your morality—if you follow all the rules or are evil incarnate—the universe is utterly indifferent.  It just is what it is.

There is no evidence of a grand design, as I had been indoctrinated to believe, and fully embraced—before falling flat.

It is pareidolia, a mirage or projection of our own desire to find explanation or reason for everything.  People want this singular thing to blame for all bad things and yet there is not in the case of this drowning.  The mom was not negligent, the water is neutral and neither good nor evil.  Trying to find design is only me choking on a reality we all should face: We all leave this world the same as we entered it—dust to dust.  Some depart on a different schedule than expected.  But many children have died before their parents and long before history recorded it.

To have no cosmic force orchestrating our suffering is a big comfort.  It eliminates the cognitive dissonance of the loving God that then subjects Creation to torment.  Pain is a survival mechanism.  It helps to correct our behavior and train us, but also misfires (ask those with chronic pain) and hurts us for no good reason.  There is no need for a perfect system, one where only those who deserve punishment are punished, merely one that functions well enough.  There is no intent to be cruel, no special message to glean from the loss of a precious daughter a weekend before Mother’s Day—she slipped on a rock and that’s all there is to it.

We desire a director behind all events good or bad to make it easier to understand.

If fantasy helps you cope with grief then by all means embrace it.  We could theorize it was part of a hidden divine plan to gain the salvation of her parents, a punishment for lack obedience to Allah, and that she is playing up in heaven with those millions of aborted fetuses Evangeli-cons care about (or the children of Gaza they don’t) and if the thought comforts then pull it up over your head like a warm blanket.  Nature can be cruel, cruel in a way that seems very much too improbable to be unplanned, but good people suffer just as the wicked do, and the universe offers no explanation or apology for it.

Anticipating November’s Delivery

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In November, as the world tunes in to know who will be elected president, my wife and I will anticipate something else. 

We expect a baby girl, our first child together and second that Charlotte has brought into the world.  It has been my joy to raise our son, but having this miracle of life unfold before my eyes is still a powerful experience.  How a moment of intimacy can create such potential is just completely amazing.

There is no greater role in the world than a woman who takes her pregnancy to term, motherhood is simply the most important job there is.  In a century nobody will care about who won the popular vote or their policies.  Truly, short of a civilization ending nuclear war, they’ll remember Trump like we remember Taft or Harris as we recall all the many noteworthy accomplishments of the Harding administration.  But old folks then will remember their mothers.

The most powerful position in the world is not one with four year terms.  A President can reallocate resources, make things more or less difficult, wage war and destroy, but only mothers produce new life.

Early in our relationship, when marriage had become a possibility, Charlotte was excited about the prospect of a mixed baby.  That is a combination of my German genetics “long nose” with her own.  But as months waiting turned into years that initial enthusiasm had wore off and, by the time she arrived, it was all about financial goals.  We couldn’t afford a baby—we could barely keep up with rising costs due to inflation!  

Besides that, we are both getting old.  The world seems less stable now than ever, my own skepticism has grown and I’ve become untethered from assumptions that brought me easy answers in the past.  Our son was already here, we weren’t bringing a new life into the mess.  So maybe it was better that we didn’t bring a child into this to suffer the hardships and pain that we have?

I’ll also admit that my wife, despite having given birth once, had a flat belly and that is completely desirable.  We all want to hang onto our youthful appearance.  Men tend to prefer women that are in shape or pleasing for aesthetic reasons.  Why ruin that?

However, a bottle of wine and nature have won against rational concerns.  No, those anxieties about how to raise a child in this environment did not go away and, for the first time ever, abortion entered my mind as an escape of this enormous responsibility.  This could all just go away with a ‘medical procedure’ and nobody would need to know, right?  Of course, that momentary reflection was swallowed up by excitement.

No, we don’t know how all of the details will work out.  Our hopes of moving Charlotte’s mom here didn’t pan (only the parents of US citizens can be petitioned) and we’ll have to adapt as we go.  We have no regrets, the kicks we feel now soon to give way to cries in the night, diaper changes and all of those steps of development.  But in the end this is the only legacy we will leave to the world—the only future we have.

Preparations are underway for the inaugural moment when this winner against the odds will emerge.  We want our daughter to have the very best introduction to the world we can provide—a safe and stimulating environment.  We’re stocking up on diapers and bottles, have a crib and car seat that can double as a stroller, friends and family will celebrate—the anticipation builds!

Saved In Childbearing

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My own views have migrated from spiritual imagination to sustainable compared to the unsustainable.  Civilization was built by the participation of many who assumed roles that fit their qualifications and now is on the brink of collapse as we deny nature.  We’re on a path that is unsustainable because we deny nature.

What is nature?

Nature is that, as we mature beyond the age of childhood, inborn sexual desires lead us to seek a partner.  And, when successful, “A man leaves his father and mother and is united to his wife, and they become one flesh.” (Gen 2:24 NIV) The purpose of this joining of man and woman? A multiplication from two to three, four, five, or more.  That is to say that in marriage we’re fruitful.

The point of this blog is not to be preachy or tell anyone what to do, rather it is to outline a problem and share a few Bible references for fun.  Scripture is part of the tradition and foundation of our civilization and could help us to diagnose where things are possibly going wrong as we stumble.  All across the developed world population collapse looms and it will be a disaster for little old you.

This is a topic even more important if you’re irreligious, think this is all there is, and aren’t aiming for “treasures in heaven,” because it could impact your retirement plans.  This is purely a numbers game how it plays out, if there aren’t enough people to make stuff or provide services, there is nothing for you to buy—your current lifestyle might be the high point of your life.

But even if you are ‘heavenly-minded’ there is still plenty of reason to reconsider some of the attitudes that I’ve witnessed within conservative groups.  Truly, fundamentalists need to fix their courtship gambit more than anyone else.  There are plenty of women in those circles who are ‘married to Jesus’ and are really only married to themselves, their idealistic visions—and in total denial of the real cause of their lack of success.

I call out women, in particular, because they are the true gatekeepers of romance.  If you are a half-ambitious guy you just know this, I’ve been turned down so many times that I have lost count.  There were some, basically average, girls who would sooner get cancer and die than go on a first date with me or a man who did not fit a long list of superficial or social status requirements.

Yeah, it worked out for some of them, but a great many wasted their fertile years trying for unattainable perfection.

What does the Bible say?

This know also, that in the last days perilous times shall come. For men shall be lovers of their own selves, covetous, boasters, proud, blasphemers, disobedient to parents, unthankful, unholy, without natural affection, trucebreakers, false accusers, incontinent, fierce, despisers of those that are good, traitors, heady, highminded, lovers of pleasures more than lovers of God; having a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof: from such turn away. For of this sort are they which creep into houses, and lead captive silly women laden with sins, led away with divers lusts, ever learning, and never able to come to the knowledge of the truth. (2 Timothy 3:1-7 KJV)

I don’t think this is the end of all, but it might be the end of us.  Typically verses like those above get applied to those who are outside the group.  It is “the world” that is full of narcissistic self-seeking types.  And indeed the secular-minded have led the way as far as being unbound to any natural responsibility.  But the church is often guilty of the same things albeit covertly and wearing a righteous disguise—in the manner of the Pharisees:

And he continued, “You have a fine way of setting aside the commands of God in order to observe your own traditions!  For Moses said, ‘Honor your father and mother,’ and, ‘Anyone who curses their father or mother is to be put to death.’  But you say that if anyone declares that what might have been used to help their father or mother is Corban (that is, devoted to God)—then you no longer let them do anything for their father or mother. Thus you nullify the word of God by your tradition that you have handed down. And you do many things like that.” (Mark 7:9-13 NIV)

What Jesus is addressing is how the most pious of his day would use sanctimonious claims to override practical commands.  In the example he gives they were claiming to be saving their resources to give to God and thus not able to take care of their parents. It was an excuse.  They used the missional as a cover for their big neglects closer to home and, likewise, many today say that they are fully dedicated to God’s kingdom by doing fun projects in Uganda—but are they loving their brothers and sisters in Christ?

I suppose we could blame St Paul for being seemingly all over the map on marriage and if we should pursue it.  Then again, maybe the point of 1 Corinthians 7 where he makes singleness a higher calling is simply for the sake of encouraging those who did not find that special person and basically reminding them they have greater freedom to do God’s work while not married.  But it is abundantly clear that church growth comes through the production of children.  And women, those most likely to be led astray, play the most vital role in this: 

I do not permit a woman to teach or to assume authority over a man; she must be quiet. For Adam was formed first, then Eve. And Adam was not the one deceived; it was the woman who was deceived and became a sinner. But women will be saved through childbearing—if they continue in faith, love and holiness with propriety. (1 Timothy 2:12-15 NIV)

Again, I don’t expect anyone to believe this, this could simply be the misogynistic blathering of an entitled Jewish guy who found Jesus as a means to advance his social agenda.  But, if you’re a Christian, then what exactly does “Women will be saved through childbearing” mean so far as the church today?

First, this is an allusion to Mary and her role in the salvation of the world.  According to the Gospel, God chose to come into the world through the natural means of pregnancy and birth.  Second, it tells us something about the vital role of women in the church and matches or supersedes any speaking role.  This absurdity that shaping the world comes only through opening our mouths is why many women sacrifice their potential as the literal creators of the future.

Motherhood Is Most Important 

Feminism measures value in only the most masculine terms.  It tells us that the natural and traditional role of women is worthless and that women need to compete with men for money and political power.  But the core of this ideology is an attack on motherhood and doing that one thing no man could ever do—only a woman can give birth.

But the degrading of motherhood is not only a matter of women being told that they need to be toxically independent of men economically, but also in turning children into a burden, a parasite and something to be exterminated before they have a chance to say, “Momma.”  Birth control and abortion send a message that the next generation is not important, that it is a liability rather than an asset, and there is nothing further from the truth.

During COVID the same people who told us to mask up or we’re killing Grandma or had made shrines to George Floyd continued to lead the assault on the youngest and most vulnerable population.  It makes no sense, old people will die no matter what we do to protect them.  Black women terminate their pregnancies five times the rate that other women do, but the topic of the day is black lives matter and protecting others through our own self-sacrifice?

The reality is that the war on motherhood is sacrificing our own future.  We really should be thinking of our Grandma and what the world will be like if we don’t follow in her footsteps by raising the next generation.  The reality is that Social Security is a Ponzi scheme and can only be sustained through population growth.  Even if it were paid for, money has no value unless there is someone to offer their labor in exchange for it.  That savings of dollars is useless without any qualified people to fill positions.

Our narcissism will catch up to us one way or another.  The short-sighted pursuit of a career will have consequences.  Taking the pleasures while denying the responsibilities that nature has intended will inevitably lead to a snapback.  We can artificially cheat the system for only so long before nature starts to push back to eliminate a threat.  History is littered with those who thought themselves to be gods only to be humbled.

The Sustainable Church

Evangelicalism, in particular the focus on conversionism, the Bible out of context of the religious tradition that formed it, and a focus on activism, has eroded communities and put the primary conduit of the Gospel (children of Christians) in second place to information distribution efforts.  The true Church is about Communion, about bringing a little of the heavenly kingdom to Earth, it is about households being saved.  And that is where a woman’s role of bringing new life into the world—which is what sustains any ‘spiritual’ movement.

We need less talk.  Rather than push more speaking roles or more of those glamorous foreign adventures, as if this wasn’t only what St. Paul and a handful of others did in the early Church, there should be a move to what has been most effective for centuries and truly where grows a community of the faith.  We need to give the men who wish to be married and provide for their wives and families the opportunity to be fathers.  We do it by normalizing the natural good again.

There is an overabundance of glory-seeking men and women, desperate for higher social rank and more attention.  They love to have their name on a prayer card while living on the dime of others.  They’re too busy with information warfare to realize that the most powerful witness of Christ is love closer to home.  It was the ‘important’ people who Jesus had condemned for ignoring the bloodied man left for dead along their path or stepping over Lazarus as they went about their business—they thought themselves righteous and were on the road to hell.

There are many reasons why the Christian West is dying and declining birthrates are the biggest contributing factor.  This is partly due to the emphasis on missionary work rather than the ministry of motherhood.  We would save more people—save even our own future—if we shifted back to fruitfulness and being multiplied.  If you have a worldview to spread you don’t do it with tracts shoved in faces.  No, you do it by doing it or good old-fashioned procreation.  So get married young, have many babies, and you’ll be blessed in your old age.

The role of mothers is as important as any man in the church and most will find out too late why that is.  Don’t be one of those who has only regret to accompany them in their twilight years.  You’ll need to decide if holding out for Mr Right is truly worth postponing your greatest calling.  Many men, currently banished to singleness, would make good husbands and fathers if given a chance.